Iran to U.S.: Checkmate.

On the world stage, it seems to me that politics often takes the form of a giant chess game. Nations vie with one another for control over various resources, and the most successful are the ones who have carefully laid plans that look many moves in advance.



Certainly we have been doing this for many years, as have the Russians, the Chinese, and every other great power.



But Iran has just defeated us all with some rather ingenious maneuvering.



If you watch the news like I do, you might be under the impression that the world is about to apply serious pressure to Iran to get them to stop enriching uranium. The thought is that Iran is planning to use this enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons, and that if the rest of the world can simply apply enough economic pressure, then Iran's economy will collapse, Ahmadinejad will be ousted, and perhaps even the mullahs and ayatollah will have their power stripped.



This is ridiculously naive, almost to the point of silliness, and here's why. In the West, we often assume that other countries think and function the way we do. That is, we believe everyone wants individual freedoms for everyone else, and will fight to make the world more equitable. We also tend to believe that if a country has 'elections,' then that means their people also have similar rights to us, and that their government could never brutally oppress them.



If you think like that, you should've paid more attention to the crackdown that ensued when the Iranian people accused Ahmadinejad of stealing the election. Did any part of the military or police force side with the protestors? No. Did any of the ruling mullahs side with them? No. Did the ayatollah himself give any legitimacy to the protests? No.



See, in the West we realize that the vast majority of the Iranian people are secular, don't like Ahmadinejad, and don't like the direction he and the ruling council are taking their country. What we don't yet realize (though I hope the Obama administration does) is that it doesn't matter, since those same secular people have neither the political nor the military muscle to do anything about their situation.



So what does that mean? It means they'll suffer under economic sanctions and have no recourse but to continue to suffer, until such time as the council changes their situation or the Revolutionary Guard revolts and sides with the people. I don't think either one of those is going to happen.



The Administration and the rest of the West seem confident, now that we have revealed to the world yet another enrichment facility at Qom, that the whole world will come together and put pressure on Iran to stop enriching uranium. Most of this pressure would come from a denial of banking transactions (Iran would not be able to get paid for the oil it sells), and an embargo of gasoline (Iran has to import something like 80%-90% of its gasoline).



For this to work two things have to happen. First, the Security Council must pass binding resolutions for this pressure. Second, they have to enforce it. I have my doubts that such a thing will ever happen. Obama dropped a bombshell on the world by forcing Iran to admit that they have yet another secret enrichment facility under construction. Yet the reaction from China and Russia was a collective sigh and shrug. They don't care, and we have nothing to make them care.



They are not going to help, mainly because they have no incentive to help. However, IF the U.N. does pass resolutions, and IF they are effective, then maybe, just maybe Iran can be stopped. But those resolutions will have to hold until the current government either changes or is overthrown, and rogue nations through the years have shown an incredible resiliency to U.N. resolutions - even ones that are enforced.



Those are big IFs, though. The more realistic scenario is that Russia and/or China drag their feet, and the Security Council passes binding resolutions, but only after it's too late. It will be revealed that Iran has enough material for a nuclear weapon, and is quickly making ever more weapons-grade uranium. A bomb has not yet been built, but could be assembled in a matter of weeks.



There then remain two options. Israel attacks, sparking a wider ranging conflict in the Middle East, and simultaneously sending global oil prices skyrocketing, which will have a negative impact on the Western economies. The better option is that we keep Israel reigned in, a tenuous peace exists around the globe, but Iran has functional nuclear warheads.



Obviously neither of those is the best option, but we have been beaten at the game. The Iranians will have nuclear weapons within a year - or else the Arab world will once again be at war with Israel.



God in heaven, I hope I'm wrong.